IATA’s latest 20-year forecast shows that frequency of air trips in developed economies will ‘flatten out’ despite rising living standards.

India aviation

Growth in the frequency of traveling by air over the next 20 years will be driven in large part by the emerging markets of India and China.

A chart from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), based on conclusions from the organization’s upcoming 20-year air passenger forecast, also shows that increased living standards will not see a rise in trip frequency among the world’s more developed economies.

The analysis shows the relationship between the average frequency of air travel (the number of flights to, from, within a country divided by its population) and living standards, measured by GDP per capita.

IATA’s analysis shows that once GDP per capita reaches $20,000 in a country, the trip frequency flattens

In the latest ‘Chart of the Week’, IATA has found that if trends continue as expected, 44% of additional air passenger trips will come from India and China over the next 20 years.

Both fast-growing states are expected to see a rise in demand to connect cities across their vast lands by air, for services including trade, investment and travel.

However, the average citizen in Europe and the US is not expected to fly more than they do at present. This is despite current trends showing that living standards in these areas are expected to be 20-30% higher in 20 years’ time.

IATA’s analysis shows that once GDP per capita reaches $20,000 in a country, the trip frequency flattens. In addition, expected population growth—a key driver of air passenger demand— is low in developed economies such as Germany.

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